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Archive for February, 2010

This is bull’s chance to maintain the uptrend

In the past days the S&P 500 and DJIA bounced off the daily 200 EMA. Bulls emerged to rescue our uptrend before violating the November 2009 lows. Due to this rise, the big picture uptrend is still very well intact. We can therefore regard it as an important juncture if bulls really mean it seriously.

The conclusion is that we can expect a bounce here. The first challenge is awaiting us at the upper range of the downtrend channel from which we sold off yesterday afternoon. Breaking this can be an attempt to break the intermediary 1,100 resistance. Dropping below the 200 EMA, however, can result in some serious outcry.

February 10, 2010 | View Comments | View Post

In Search for a Catalyst

Despite the recent recovery in markets, anxiety is still felt. What happened the past days was a gap fill from November 9 (marked red) and a bounce from this level. We are currently in a state of indecision, waiting for a new catalyst to give us direction. Accordingly, the SPY could not accomplish more than an inside Doji today.

By looking at the intraday activity, we can observe a cautious uptrend toward resistance areas. These are especially the 20 and 50 EMA in the daily chart (also visible in the Dow Jones). If bears are able to defend the resistance areas and break the small uptrend in that process, we should get more defensive.

Closing above the moving averages, however, can be an attempt to reach for January’s highs.

February 3, 2010 | View Comments | View Post
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