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Author Archive for John Palatine

How to Use Our Triggering Levels

Clients requested to be informed about potential signals in advance as they sometimes receive them out of nowhere. We have therefore introduced a new section “Triggering Price Levels” in the client area. Let me explain in detail how to use them:

When I developed Dynamic System, the idea was to exploit both large trends and ranging markets. It was therefore necessary to be offered sufficient precision to take advantage of these market environments. In ranging markets, the triggering levels tend to cluster over time, hence causing more frequent signals. They free up again once large trends are established such as during 2003-2009. Currently we are clearly in a ranging phase.

The scale basically goes from very long term to very short term. All of them have the same relevance for triggering an entry signal. You can also regard them as support & resistance areas. Let’s take the recent short signal (August 11th) for instance:

  1. Price was nearing the mid-term triggering level 113.50 from below
  2. Based on the bias color (bearish), clients know that it could signal a short
  3. Price reverses nearby and our system gives an entry signal

These levels are not exact buying or selling recommendations. This is something that no system can tell in advance. Instead our system goes into detailed momentum analysis first by observing price action and the speed at which price moves. Once a reversal is observed there, it will enter a position and place the stop loss order accordingly.

Current Market Environment and Hyperactivity

Last weekend we received emails from two valued clients who questioned the frequent trading our system has done recently. After all, clients sign up because they want passive trend following, precisely as we promise on our website:

Dynamic System generates a dozen or less signals per year to catch only the very big trends in which we stay in for weeks to months.

In the previous two years (since the inception of public trading signals) we lived up to our promise and clients enjoyed tremendous profits with few trades. 2008 offered merely five trades to make a 42% return, 2009 another 61% return with seven trades. In the current market environment we cannot stick with a trend as long as we used to.

You might have noticed that the market swings up only to reverse entirely. It is stuck in a range with the S&P 500 basically unchanged for the year. Not that our team wants to bloat with our 25% return for 2010 but when I conceived Dynamic System, I was aware that markets do not only trend. It is therefore optimized to exploit ranging markets with great efficiency, as well.

Our client base has been growing consistently with very low fluctuation. I am very thankful for the trust our clients give us. If you have any complaints, please do let me know. Although trend following still requires a bit of active money management, I’m sure it is absolutely worth the effort. So let us strive for a good second half 2010 and hope for more lasting trends to follow.

From Failed Moves Come Fast Moves

Market participants have been observing what is supposedly called a head-and-shoulders pattern in the S&P 500. Once its lows were violated, they anticipated further downside but this scenario failed to materialize as our benchmark made a u-turn at 1010 points. Dynamic System correctly signaled a long entry.

Since then we could recover quite a bit and rescue ourselves back into the safe zone of 1050 and above. Currently we can consider this a fake breakdown, to levels which the market is unlikely to return to again.

The rally on July 20 was a very encouraging day for bullish investors because on that day we marked a higher low in this new uptrend. Therefore, setting a stop loss order there is the maximum allowance we should give this market.

We are now looking to break the 200 moving average that has been quite a problem area recently, and would welcome a decisive breakthrough of the 1100 mark in the coming few days.

The Rally That No One Joined

It is hart to follow how some individuals believe this whole rally was just so-called short covering activity. What difference does it make whether price goes up through short covering or through new long-term commitments? Can we know it at all? Technically, the reason comes down to the same bottom line. Prices go up because there are more buy orders than sell orders.

There is always a major trend that dictates the wiggles intraday. This has to be the focus to be a successful trend follower because only then the activity being observed day by day can make sense. Just because someone says it is “merely short-covering”, does it mean a trader should better not reap the profits of a rally? It could go down anytime, we are told.

The average investor is missing out yet another huge opportunity because he is being fooled into believing that the next crash is just around the corner. So after the dot-com bubble, where he refused to cut losses and after the financial crises, in which he was forced to give up his holdings, he is now in denial and – as always – doing precisely the opposite of what he should be doing.

Fortunately, at Trend Architect we have the vision to make trend following available to everyone. We put great effort in making this as easy and affordable as possible. With just $39 per quarter you can join the big trends of the financial market.

Version Two of Trend Architect

Our subscription service is already running a few years but the website design has never really reflected the great performance it has yielded for clients. This is why we finally invested some trading profits into a refurbished look and feel. The pages have been created from scratch and sport these significant improvements:

  • A completely new client area
  • See our current position by checking the fund’s portfolio
  • Instant email notification once a signal is published
  • Improved account and subscription management
  • Access to all recent and archived trading signals

We hope that you feel comfortable with our new design immediately, and always welcome your feedback for further enhancements. Go to Trend Architect.