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One Likely Bullish Scenario

By looking at the longer term weekly chart, the events since beginning of this year are easily explained. The reasons for the crash and the subsequent bounce back lie in the 50 and 200 EMA. Macroeconomic news such as the Greek debt crisis merely justified such a move.

Now that we reached a new recovery high and are about to break through the 200 weekly EMA, chances are high that the market will go for 1250-1260, a gain of 8.7% from here. Consequently, this EMA is expected to turn around bullish.

If you have been a day trader and observed the S&P 500 closely back then, you will definitely remember how the index reacted strangely at the 1260 levels pre-Lehman Brothers. Not merely on one occasion, but each time we ranged in that area on several days.

During those days, I have been active in trading groups, and kept pointing it out to other particpants. I know other traders found this level weird, as well. We could not explain why, but “something was there”. So as we recover back to this area, I’m going to be very watchful.

Subscribers are already perfectly positioned to exploit such a move. A trading signal has been published on February 25 by Dynamic System. This trend following position is paying high dividends to all of us. Learn more about Dynamic System, if you like to follow our trading signals.

March 13, 2010 | View Comments | View Post

This is bull’s chance to maintain the uptrend

In the past days the S&P 500 and DJIA bounced off the daily 200 EMA. Bulls emerged to rescue our uptrend before violating the November 2009 lows. Due to this rise, the big picture uptrend is still very well intact. We can therefore regard it as an important juncture if bulls really mean it seriously.

The conclusion is that we can expect a bounce here. The first challenge is awaiting us at the upper range of the downtrend channel from which we sold off yesterday afternoon. Breaking this can be an attempt to break the intermediary 1,100 resistance. Dropping below the 200 EMA, however, can result in some serious outcry.

February 10, 2010 | View Comments | View Post

In Search for a Catalyst

Despite the recent recovery in markets, anxiety is still felt. What happened the past days was a gap fill from November 9 (marked red) and a bounce from this level. We are currently in a state of indecision, waiting for a new catalyst to give us direction. Accordingly, the SPY could not accomplish more than an inside Doji today.

By looking at the intraday activity, we can observe a cautious uptrend toward resistance areas. These are especially the 20 and 50 EMA in the daily chart (also visible in the Dow Jones). If bears are able to defend the resistance areas and break the small uptrend in that process, we should get more defensive.

Closing above the moving averages, however, can be an attempt to reach for January’s highs.

February 3, 2010 | View Comments | View Post

Stock Market Resumes Its Downtrend

Clients are short positioned since January 21, when our trading system signaled an entry opportunity to exploit the coming downside in the markets. We are still holding this position completely untouched ever since. If you want to learn more about Dynamic System (which has returned 61% in 2009), visit our homepage.

As trend followers, we try to hold onto this trade for as long as possible. I would like to give a short update on what is currently being observed: A very visible uptrend channel in the SPY, which took shape since mid-August, has been violated today. Another reason for concern is the break of the multi-month support level at around 109.00. Both of these breaks signal more intermediate weakness ahead and do not happen for no reason.

Yesterday’s announcement by the Federal Reserve to leave the interest rates unchanged was celebrated with cautious enthusiasm initially. It dissipated entirely today and we are resuming our downtrend.

January 28, 2010 | View Comments | View Post

Remake of the Trend Architect Blog is Complete

What you see right now is the improved look of our Trend Architect blog. The reason for this step is to structure our content more effectively and to communicate the mission of our small team clearer than ever on our homepage. We put efforts to bring this message to the public:

  • Make trend following straightforward and available to anyone
  • Offer a solution that is affordable to our clients
  • Guide our clients with professional position management

The product with which we want to achieve this goal is already very profitable at an extremely attractive price. If you take into account how client’s funds increased by nearly 61% in 2009, the $39 subscription fee is compelling! Read more about our vision, Dynamic System’s performance, and other information on our homepage.

January 27, 2010 | View Comments | View Post
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